INTRODUCTION
The importance of this subject is explained through the identification of the reasons
which triggered the crisis of refugees, of the conflict situation from Middle East and of the
effects that result from this. We must keep in mind that host states of the refu gees, countries
that are part of EU, are confronting with the aging population phenomenon, this is why it is
necessary to check the assumption which refers to the possibility that the presence of refugees
in Europe will stop the aging of population.
1 Andreea Florentina NICOLESCU is Ph.D Student at The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania,
e-mail: [email protected]
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The article is structured in two parts, so, in the first part of the article it is presented
the situation of the origin states, more precise, there is realized a qualitative analysis over the
reasons that led to population flee from Middle East in Europe, a con tinent that is more
secure compared with the situation in Syria, Iraq or Afghanistan. In the analysis, there is a
focus on the situation in Syria, taking into consideration that the most of the asylum seekers
in EU are from there, so there are analyzed the reasons that led to the Syrian war.
In the second part of the research, it begins from the idea that Europe has an issue
regarding the sharpening of the phenomenon of population aging, this is why it is analyzed
the percent of population over 60 years in order to understand the situation in which Europe
currently is from this perspective. On the other side, it is analyzed the situation of the
refugees on age intervals to identify the ones that could help stopping this phenomenon.
1. GEOPOLITICAL THREATS FROM THE ORIGIN STATES OF THE
REFUGEES IN THE CONTEXT OF HUMANITARIAN CRISIS BURST FROM
MENA AREA
This analysis is meant to identify the threats present in the states where refugees come
from, in the context in which these states show an unstable geopolitical frame which is going
to be brought in the followings.
In order to be able to make this study, I used as main method of research the
documents analysis, among these being found researches done by the experts as well as
official documents made available by E U institutions, which have an active role in handling
the refugees crisis on European continent. Another aspect regarding the used methodology
was making a comparison to highlight the existing differences regarding the reasons that
caused the conflicts whi ch formed a crisis with humanitarian impact among states in MENA
area, this being the acronym used for Middle East and North Africa.
Considering the position of MENA region, which is between the three continents,
Europe, Asia and Africa and the valuable re sources in the area, remarking in this way the big
gas and oil resources, that pointed to strong conflicts between the great powers that have as
goal obtaining this territories, no matter what.
The creation of Israel, which is a jewish state, in the middle of the arab and muslim
states from MENA region contributed to numerous conflicts in the area, this being a cause of
the area instability. Other causes of generating refugees crisis are: increasing terrorism in the
area, especially by increasing the power of ISIS terrorist group, the US intervention in Iraq in
2003, the Israel -Palestine conflict as well as “The Arabic Spring” caused the propagation of
war in the entire region, producing numerous wars , among these having the Civil War from
Libya as well as Iraq. All these conflicts activated the refugee flee of numerous groups,
especially in Europe, but the heavy war from Syria represents, by now, the one with the
biggest impact over peace and stability from MENA area, this situation being the main cause
of refugees flee.
Having the previously mentioned facts referring to the main reasons of the conflicts that
produced the refugees crisis, the purpose of the study is to bring more details to the causes
that led the creation of a region with high instability t hat had negative effects over the safety
of the citizens in these states.
1.1. SYRIA WAR AS MAIN FACTOR FOR TRIGGERING THE
REFUGEES CRISIS IN EUROPE. CAUSES AND EFFECTS OF THE SYRIAN
WAR BREAK OUT OVER THE ORIGIN STATES OF REFUGEES
Syrian Arabian Republic, officially known in the short form of Syria, it is a state that
makes part of the antiquity civilization center of Middle East. Its main cities are: Alep, which
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suffered multiple effects of the war in this state, Homs, Hama and Dam asc, the last one being
the capital of Syria. The president of the state is Bashar Al-Assad, which was elected in 2000,
being the successor of his father, Hafez Al -Assad, which was president of the Syrian state
since 1970.2
In what follows, I will present the main causes of war bursting in Syria in order to
better understand what produced the refugees crisis. Among the reasons that contributed to
the war in Syria, we can enumerate the following:
Dissatisfaction regarding the long period of government of Al -Assad family and the
discontent among the authoritarianism of the Syrians
The differences between the ways of governing Syria were very big, comparing father with
son, since Hafez Al-Assad was the one which, while he led for 30 years, assured the stability
in his country, making a strong bond with Iran and Russian Social Soviet Union. The policy
on which Hafez Al -Assad bet was pro Palestine, on the other side, it had anti -occidental and
anti-Israel influences. The president of Syria from that period was ver y quiet, not being
closed to the citizens of his state or, comparing with Bashar Al -Assad, the son who governed
after the death of his father and his brother, who died in 1994 due to a car accident. After
becoming president, the relations of Syria with the Occident improved, especially considering
that the new Syrian president had an education partially founded in London, where he
continued his studies in ophthalmology, initiated in Damascus.3
The actions of Syrians authorities against the protesters and th eir effects on
worsening the conflict
The conflictual situation in Syria started in 2011, in Daraa city, after an incident that ended
with the torture of some young people, because they were writing revolutionary messages on
the walls of a school, in contr ariety with the government actions. After this incident, there
were manifestations of the population for the way in which the security forces acted and hurt
those young men, the protesters asking for the resignation of the Syrian president. This
situation got worse when the allies of the opposition of Bashar Al -Assad used weapons to
defend themselves and, after, to eliminate the security forces in those areas.4
Unfortunately, the situation become even worse after the protest, becoming a civil war
between the sustainers of Bashar Al -Assad and his opponents, even more that the power of
Islamic State grew up and developed an extra dimension over the war in Syria.
The sectarian war between Shiites and Sunni, an old religious division contributes to
augmentation of the civil war in Syria
The fight between the two forces led to simulating violence which affected Iraq and amplified
the existing tensions in Gulf countries. During centuries, the two sects lived together,
marriages between those two being happening ve ry often or the fact that these were praying
at the same mosques, having similar prayers but what differentiates them are the rituals and
the way of interpreting the Islamic law. The majority are Sunni, around 85%, the rest of 15%
are Shiites. The separati on of the 2 sects has old roots, appeared after the death of
Muhammad and what led to a conflict between the sects was the debate of succession. Sunni
oppose that political succession realizes on blood line of Muhammad, considering that is
more important n aming a leader based on reasons of qualifications while Shiites insist to
accept a single leader that must be a person on the blood line of Muhammad. Currently, the
Shiites can be found mostly in Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Azerbaijan and Bahrain while Sunni are
majority in over 40 states, among which are Morocco and Indonesia. The regime of president
Bashar Al -Assad has at its base Alawis, which is a heterodox sect from Shia and which
2 Relații bilaterale, Republica Arabă Siriană, accessed May 5, 2017, https://www.mae.ro/bilateral-relations/5054
3 VP Haran, “Roots Of The Syrian Crisis”, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, March 2016
4 Elizabeth O’Bagy, “Syrian’s Political Opposition”, Institute for the Study of War, April 2012
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represents 13% of population from Syria. This is the sect that dominates the mi litary and
security services of the country run by Al -Assad, being the one which help the forces that
fight to support the regime of Bashar Al-Assad from the civil war in Syria.5
1.2. CAUSES AND EFFECTS OF CREATING “THE ARABIC SPRING”
AND ITS INFLUENCE IN THE WAR IN SYRIA
The set of protests made in North Africa and Middle East which started in December
2010 and lasted until the first months of 2011 were called “The Arabic Spring”. These
manifestations took place in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Syria and other states.
The causes that generated this set of protests are multiple:6
- The economic factors that are related to poorness and high level of unemployment,
aspects that led to amplification of frustration level for citizens from Middle East and
North Africa, these p eople claiming that there aren’t taken any measures to reduce the
unemployment, especially the one among the young people. So, poorness was one of the
reasons that contributed to protests in different states.
- Repressive authoritative regimes had an impact over the Middle East and caused
numerous protests. Thus, the fact that the leaders Ben Ali from Tunisia, Mubarak from
Egypt, Gadhafi from Libya, Al -Assad from Syria and Abdullah Saleh from Yemen tried
to limit the power of any opposition contributed to hum an rights violation in many
occasions, fact that dissatisfied the population of these states which wanted to cease the
political power of their leaders.
- The relationship between the army and the civil society had also an effect over the
protests so called “The Arabic Spring”, so, in the states in which the interests of the
military leaders were compatible with the encouragement of the military regime drove to
the fight for government take down; a such case if the one of Libya and, currently, Syria.
- The corr uption from the states were the protests took place represented one of their
causes. In this way, political regimes from these states were seen by the citizens as being
tainted by corruption by obtaining some very big family fortunes by their leaders.
- A big role in “The Arabic Spring” was held also by traditional media but also social, who
helped by broadcasting and promoting political messages or some details regarding the
protests establishment which allowed their spread among population which became more
and more attracted to participate at these demonstrations.
2. REFUGEES USED AS INSTRUMENT TO COPE WITH THE EUROPE
POPULATION AGING PHENOMENON
This chapter has the role to establish if refugees that arrive on European territory can
help to combat the population aging phenomenon. EU member states are concerned about the
population aging aspect which will increase in the future based on life expectancy growth
level.
This fact, together with global natality rate decreasing to 1.5 children born by each
woman contributes to reduction of the active population proportion in Europe, which brings
the necessity to attract immigrants with a high qualification level and which has the
corresponding age to work. Considering the fact that the population aging aspect, also called
“the demographic winter” varies as intensity in European countries, it is necessary to have a
different approach of migration politics which are able to fit with the specific dynamics of
that population. Even though migration can’t be a decisive so lution at the demographic
5 Council on Foreign Relations, “The Sunni-Shia Divide a CFR InfoGuide Presentation”
6 International Relations, “The Arab Spring”, accessed May 10, 2017, http://internationalrelations.org/the-arab-
spring/
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problems with which Europe confronts, the anticipative policies could improve the situation.
In this way, to benefit from the present migration influx, the European countries which
benefit from the refugees presence on their terri tory should create long -term strategies that
include refugees integration on market labor.7
Europe has an aged population, this things is revealed also by the fact that, globally,
27 out 30 states with the highest percentage of people of 65 years old and o ver are from here.
Among these we can enumerate Italy, Greece, Germany, Portugal, Finland and Bulgaria,
where around 20% of the population is 65 and over. On long term, the refugees influx could
be a benefit because the number of younger workers necessary on European market labor
could improve, refugees having the potential to stimulate innovation and to bring ideas and
new perspectives.8
To realize this first part of the research, I used data published by Eurostat concerning
the percentage of population from EU which is enclosed in the age interval 60 -79 years and
80-80+ between 2007-2016. I chose these dates to perform the analysis in ord er to show the
high level of aged people from EU28 that brings to necessity of creating some policies meant
to reduce the negative effects of European population aging process
I start from doing the analysis regarding the population of Europe, where we can
notice in figure 2.1 the fact that aging population aspect at EU has recorded an increasing
trend starting with 2007 until 2016, event that can be identified at both age levels. In this way
we can observe that in the first year that has been analyzed, 18% of the total population of
EU had the age between 60 and 79 years.
Aging population process in Europe sharped in the evaluated cycle, people in this age
interval reaching 19.9% of the total number in EU. A worrying aspect is the one that the
proportion of the ones who fit 60 -79 age group interval continually increased during all
studied period, no year from the interval being an exception of this trend. This thing shows us
very clear the fact that community from EU indicates an sharpen aging process.
Another aspect which confirms those mentioned above can be noticed in the case of
80 and 80+ people. The rate of those in this category continuously increased in the studied
time period, with the exception of 2014, when the value remained the same with the one from
the previous year.
Although we can see an evident difference between the percentage of the population
between 60 and 79 years and those of 80 and over, we can notice a common aspect, the one
that in the referenced time interval there was no decreasing moment of the aged community,
the trend being only ascendant.
If we analyze the rate of population of 80 and 80+, we can observe the fact that in
2007, the people percent of EU that was included in this interval was 4.3%, in comparison
with year 2017 when it reached 5.4%.
Previously quoted aspects in the analysis show us the fact that higher and higher rates
of EU community is in the category of aged persons, element that gets to an intense aging
European population. On this line, I consider that there sh ould be made sustainment and
encouragement policies for natality increase to have as result reducing the aging population
phenomenon.
No variable can reverse the Europeans aging process, and without the international
migration, the demographic situation wo uld be even worse. A scenario of European
Commission regarding the population of the 28 members of EU claims the fact that without
net international migration contribution, European population could reduce with more than
7 Council of Europe, Parliam entary Assembly, “The impact of European population dynamics on migration
policies”, May 22, 2015
8 Drew DeSilver, “Refugee surge brings youth to an aging Europe”, Pew Research Center, October 8, 2015
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20% by 2080. Thus, refugees could h elp EU to decrease the challenges linked to
demographic aging process, and to lead to economical growth according to present
demographical tendencies, Europe should accept a big number of refugees. However, the
demographical disproportion is high and in this case, migration won’t be enough to solve this
situation. In this way, Europe should improve competitiveness and human resource
productivity taking into consideration the changes and labor market necessities in the future.9
The proportion of people of 65 years and more from Central Europe and Baltic
countries grew with more than a third between 1990 and 2010 and population aging in this
case is caused also by young people immigration and fertility decrease rate. Some examples
where population dramatically decreased are: Croatia, where population reduced with 10%
from 1990, Romania and Hungary, where population diminished with more than 5%. The
problem of migration politics won’t be the one of accepting or not refugees but more how the
way the refugees crisis should be transformed into an opportunity.10
Whereas I identified the situation of European Union at the level of average of
population percentage which matches in the 2 age intervals, 60-79 and 80-80+, I consider that
is necessary to analyze the number of persons which obtained humanitarian protection in
2015 on age categories to be able to motivate the way in which refugees who arrived to
humanitarian crisis initiation in European countries will be able to reduce the aging process in
Europe.
Figure 2.1 Evolution of aging population from the EU28 member states from 2007 to
2016 as a percentage of the total population
Source: own representation using Eurostat database
In order to perform this analysis, I used the data provided by Eurostat, selecting 7
states that granted the refugee status for a big number of persons. Thus, from figure 2.2 we
can see that in all evaluated countries, in 2015, most of the requests that ha ve been accepted
were the ones for the persons with the age between 18 and 34 years. The biggest number of
9 European Investment Bank, “Migration and the EU, Challenges, opportunities, the role of EIB”, March 2016
10 Christian Bodewig, “Is the refugee crisis an opportunity for an aging Europe?”, Brookings, September 21,
2015
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these persons was of 3.705 refugees, accepted in Germany, which belong in the age interval
mentioned above. The next country in these standings is Fr ance, who accepted on its territory
1.385 persons with the age in 18-34 interval.
The fact that in all investigated states the most accepted refugees are young people
with the age between 18 and 34 which are able to work from the age point of view, suggest s
the evidence that these can bring numerous benefits to European population. An example in
this case it is represented by the fact that they can get hired, generating money for the states
that received them and they can spare them of the load of sustainin g them as socially assisted
persons, as well as stopping the phenomenon of European population aging.
Another argument to confirm the ones mentioned above is the fact the persons who
received asylum in EU countries studied in 2015, with the age over 65 years are very few, the
most cases are recorded in Germany (95 cases) and United Kingdom (90 cases).
According to table 2.1, Greece, which accepted 1.385 persons within 18 and 34 years
was the one who didn’t record any case of persons of 65 years or over.
Table 2.1 People who received asylum in 2015 according to the age group in selected EU
member states
Selected EU
member states
People who received asylum in 2015 according to the age group
less than 14
years
14-17 years 18-34 years 35-64 years 65 years or
over
Germany 1405 375 3705 1725 95
Greece 105 65 1385 285 0
France 110 30 3530 1660 55
Netherlands 115 40 280 155 5
Austria 425 130 1660 460 30
Sweden 580 335 895 555 45
United Kingdom 915 5 2245 1110 90
Source: own representation using Eurostat database
Those who will contribute for sure at Europe’s countries GDP and will reduce the
aging population aspect are the ones who fit in the group with the ages in the 35 -64 interval,
which are good for work and have an age that allows them to do it. The biggest part of these
are in Germany (1.725 refugees), France (1.660 refugees) and Great Britain (1.110 refugees).
The investigated countries indicate a minor number of minor persons, which could
improve the natality in the host countries in the future. T he majority of these can be found in
Germany (1.495 persons), Great Britain (915 persons) and Sweden (580 persons).
Also, there is similar situation for those with the age between 14 and 17 years, which
can support at reducing the event of aging population from European states. The most
advantaged country from this point of view is Germany, which, in this case too, accepted the
biggest number of refugees aged between 14 -17, more precisely 375 persons. The state that
follows Germany in this rank is Sweden, w ho offered the refugee status for 335 people
between 14 and 17 years.
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Figure 2.2 People who received asylum in selected EU member states in 2015 according
to the age group
Source: own representation using Eurostat database
We can notice from figure 2.3 that most of the refugees accepted in European
countries that have been selected for this inquiry are included in the age interval of 18 -34
years.
In 2016, Germany is again the state with the biggest number of accepted refugees
which are included in aisle of 18 -34 years, this one having 5.890 people from this category
and 2.430 from 35-64 years category.
Table 2.2 People who received asylum in 2016 according to the age group in selected EU
member states
Selected EU
member states
People who received asylum in 2016 according to the age group
less than 14
years
14-17 years 18-34 years 35-64 years 65 years or
over
Germany 2310 580 5890 2430 95
Greece 280 120 4210 1210 10
France 205 30 4135 2000 50
Netherlands 180 60 455 305 15
Austria 285 80 740 270 10
Sweden 645 685 1345 730 55
United
Kingdom
1160 10 3815 1390 95
Source: own representation using Eurostat database
An aspect that can be identified in 2016 and it different from the previous year is the
one of Greece, which recorded in 2016 with 2.825 more refugees than in 2015 regarding the
18-34 age interval, being on the third place regarding this rank.
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Again, for Greece, we notice that fact that the number of refugees accepted on its
islands grew in 2016 compared to 2015 regarding t he people with the age between 35 -64,
reaching to 1.210 refugees in 2016 that could help the aging process there.
In the case of minors, we can identify in table 2.2 that most of this class refugees that
were accepted or received the refugee status, from c ategory 14 -17 years were recorded in
Sweden (685 refugees). A very smaller difference occurs in the situation of those who are
below 14 and received humanitarian protection from Sweden, this country receiving on its
territory 645 minors with the age below 14.
If we confront the states that received refugees with the age under 14, we can notice
that the state with most of these belonging to this category is Germany (2310 people), being
followed by Great Britain (1.160 people).
In 2016 too, the number of refu gees accepted in the selected European states, which
are over 65 years old is smaller compared to the other age class, which represents the fact that
this will not impact negatively the European population aging process.
Figure 2.3 People who received asylum in selected EU member states in 2016 according
to the age group
Source: own representation using Eurostat database
A conclusion of the realized analyze for years 2015 and 2016 regarding the refugees
age category which received the refugee status in the EU states is that Germany will benefit
the most from the advantages of receiving this category of young refugees that can contribute
to natality increase process but also to reducing the aging phenomenon. Germany received in
the 2 studied years a total number of 18.420 refugees from the 1-64 age interval and only 190
refugees with the age of 65 years and more. This state is followed by France, who accepted
11.700 refugees from the 1-64 years class and only 105 refugees of 65 years and over.
Regarding th e above mentioned, I consider that the accepted refugees by the
investigated countries can help stopping the aging process, taking into consideration that
most of those who came in Europe are young and the number of the ones over 65 is very
small compared to the others.
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CONCLUSIONS
The approached subject has a high importance because Europe confronts on one side
with receiving a big number of refugees and on the other side with the intensification of the
phenomenon of population aging.
As used methodology, I operated with documents analysis, among these finding
researches made by the domain experts but also the official documents provided by the
institutions of European Union, as well as the comparison method to emphasize the existing
differences regarding the situation that caused the conflicts which led to the development of a
crisis with humanitarian impact through the MENA states. In the same time, to perform the
statistical analysis, I used data supplied by Eurostat, the institution that deals with European
Commission statistic.
In the first phase, for the analysis regarding the evolution of the aging population
process as average for EU28 level, I analyzed this phenomenon for period 2007 – 2016 to
surprise the evolution of this proc ess. Afterwards, I used the method of comparison to
identify the differences between the persons who received asylum in some states selected
from European Union (the selection criteria of these being the number refugees accepted on
their territory) in 2015 , respectively 2016, the reason of choosing these 2 years being that
they reflect precisely the moment of triggering the refugees crisis, 2015, continuing with the
crisis evolution in the next year. A subsequent inquiry can be established by introducing th e
data for the next years but, at the moment of the study only the analyzed data were available.
I was able to identify the war from Syria as being the main cause of the refugees crisis
in Europe and between the reasons that led to the war in Syria we can enumerate: the
objections regarding the long-term government of Al-Assad family and the dissatisfaction for
authoritarianism of the Syrian citizens, the actions of Syrian authorities against the protesters
as well as “The Arabic Spring”. Among the causes o f the so -called “The Arabic Spring”
protests we can reveal: economic factors regarding poorness and the high level of
unemployment of population, repressive authoritarian regimes that influenced the Middle
East and led to numerous protests, the relationship between the army and civil society as well
as corruption.
In the second part of the study it is presented the evolution of the population aging
process in EU countries in 2007 -2016; after doing this analysis, we can say that bigger and
bigger rate of the population in EU is in the category of persons with ages between 60 and 79
years and 80 and over, fact that sharpens the phenomenon of aging in Europe. In this way, I
consider that there should be created policies of support and encouragement of natality
increase in order to reduce the aging process.
The research presents an analysis of group ages intervals that received asylum in
European states in 2015 and what results from this inquiry is the fact that all the studied
countries the most accepted refugees are the young ones with the age between 18 and 34 that
are good to work from the point of view of age, which suggests the fact that these can bring
numerous benefits to European population. Those that will definitely contribute to European
states GDP and will reduce the aging process are the ones that fit the age interval of 35 -64
years, good to work and have an age that allows them to work. Most of these in the
mentioned category in 2015 are in Germany, France and Great Britain.
In 2016 Germany remains t he state with the most accepted refugees with the age
between 18 and 34 and an aspect identified in 2016 which is different compared with the
previous year is the one represented by Greece, ranked 3 in this top.
From the accomplished analysis we can state that the accepted refugees by the
inquired states could contribute to stopping the aging phenomenon, taking into consideration
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that most those who chose to come in Europe as refugees are young and the number of those
over 65 years is very small compared to the first ones.
Although Europe is confronting with a process of aging population, it is possible that
the acceptance of the refugees contributes to ceasing this event, keeping in mind that most of
the people who require asylum in Europe are young people who could improve demographic
tendencies in EU.
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